The Royal Rumble event is one of the most fun shows of the entire year for many different reasons, not the least of which is how there are many different records which can be broken or at least set for this year in comparison to others.
Since the Royal Rumble is so special, I’ve made it a point over the past few years to try and study patterns in WWE’s booking (which you can find here) and take my predictions to a whole new level. Instead of just guessing the winners of the matches, why not also shoot for the extraneous factors that make up the 30-man battle royal as well?
In part two of this series of statistical analysis, we will turn our attention to the person who can survive the most amount of time, otherwise known as the “iron man” of the match.
Although this should go without being said, it needs to be mentioned that the average entrance spot for the yearly Iron Man is #5. The reason behind this is sheer math. How can one not last the longest if one is not one of the first people in the match? You’ll never see someone in the late 20s be the one who lasts the longest. In the history of the match, the furthest number in the lineup to be given this distinction was #19 on two separate occasions. Steve Austin lasted almost 27 minutes in 2002 and John Cena lasted over 22 minutes in 2010 from this spot, but every other Iron Man has come from #15 or beforehand.
The average time for the Iron Man comes out to roughly 43 minutes with only three people passing the 60 minute mark. Although Ric Flair comes close in 1992 with 0:59:26, it is Bob Backlund in 1993 (1:01:10 from entry point #2), Chris Benoit (1:01:30 from entry point #1) and Rey Mysterio with the record at 1:02:12 from entry point #2. Even Shawn Michaels, who went from the #1 spot in 1995 to win it all, only clocks in at 0:38:41 since the time between entrances was shortened that year.
Out of the 27 Royal Rumble winners (28 if you count both Lex Luger and Bret Hart), only six of them have actually won the match. Four of them are Flair, Benoit, Mysterio and Michaels from their respective years, with the other two being Steve Austin in 1997 and Vince McMahon in 1999. That in itself is a big point that should come into play when making your predictions. The person who lasts the longest is infrequently the person who outlasts them all.
Who could fit the bill for the person who has the most impressive showing out of everyone in the match, but more than likely is unable to get the job done at the end of the night or possibly even win it all?
DOLPH ZIGGLER
Longevity is something Dolph Ziggler is familiar with. He is a former Iron Man from 2013 from the #1 entry spot and he’s come very close to that at other times as well (save for his first Royal Rumble where he lasted mere seconds before being tossed out by Kane, who proved to have a stronger handshake). Ziggler’s character of The Showoff who can go out there and put on a better performance than anyone else makes this story write itself. The Authority can position him in an early spot to get back at him for having qualified to begin with and he could continually evade elimination for the majority of the match. As discussed here, Ziggler is even a possible choice to win the whole thing, which helps his chances even more. Don’t be surprised to see the in-ring workhorse of WWE almost go the distance before someone cuts him short near the end.
RUSEV or ROMAN REIGNS
Going off these predictions that either Rusev or Roman Reigns will be the person to achieve the most eliminations, it can be surmised that if that happens, that person will be placed rather early in the match. This will allow the proper time for that man to knock out a few people at the beginning and then sporadically toss out some others along the way to the final few. Since both are big names and Roman Reigns is a safe bet to be victorious, logic dictates that we could see one of these two last the longest out of everyone else. They will both be very difficult to eliminate and it is more so a question of their placement in the match rather than their staying power.
DANIEL BRYAN
If Daniel Bryan is not the winner of this year’s Royal Rumble, his chances of being the Iron Man go up significantly. Considering how he has only recently come back from a serious injury that could have put him on the shelf for good, WWE would be taking too much of a risk to have him go the distance from an early spot and win. If he isn’t booked as the sole survivor, there is more of a safety net in case something bad happens during the match. He could always be eliminated ahead of his scheduled time if he needs to be pulled due to aggravating his injury. On the opposite end of the spectrum, not having Bryan as the winner means that WWE will try to find another way to showcase his talents and give him an important spot in the match. This could very well be a situation where he is in the final four (if not the final two) before being eliminated, starting the match out somewhere in the first 15 entrances and lasting a long time, giving the fans a lot of Daniel Bryan for their buck.
Who do you think will last the longest? Is this Kofi Kingston’s year to keep finding ways to avoid being eliminated for a solid hour? Will we get another victor from #1?
Tell us your predictions in the comments below!
