Cody and Tony Schiavone announced this week that a new title will be coming to All Elite Wrestling in the TNT Championship. An eight-man tournament will start next week to crown the first-ever AEW TNT champion.
Now, we also know the eight competitors vying for that belt, as well as how the bracket is structured. This gives us a great indication of what direction AEW may be going, although nothing is set in stone.
Before any matches take place, I wanted to toss out my thoughts on the eight men involved and rank them in order of their likelihood to get the gold, from least to most likely to win.
8. Dustin Rhodes
There is absolutely no way whatsoever Dustin Rhodes wins this TNT Championship tournament.
Rhodes is way past the point in his career where he should be winning singles titles. A tag title can make sense for him, as his partner (QT Marshall at the moment) would benefit from it. With singles titles, though, it’s only about him, and he’s secured his Hall of Fame spot over a decade ago.
He doesn’t make it past round 2. If the plan is to do the Kip Sabian vs. Colt Cabana thing, then Sabian wins in the opening round. However, there’s a chance Rhodes wins so he can lose to Lance Archer, which will further the Archer/Cody story.
7. Shawn Spears
I’ve been a fan of the guy since Tye Dillinger was in NXT, but that hasn’t worked out well for me rooting for him. He has far more losses than wins on his record that he’ll never be the smart bet until he balances that ratio.
He’s up against Cody, too. Cody’s got one of the better records and is the smart bet for most of his matches. In particular, since Spears has a victory over Cody from this week’s Dynamite, it makes sense to go the opposite direction for next week.
Plus, his gimmick lately has been that he’s looking for a tag team partner. Winning a singles title right now would be the worst time for that.
Spears isn’t making it out of the first round—although, for the record, if he were to win the TNT title, I’d be all for it, as I like the guy.
6. Kip Sabian
You may be wondering why Sabian is ranked above Rhodes and Spears when I had said there’s a good chance he’s taken out in the first round by Rhodes. Well, that’s because there’s a three-step process to this tournament.
Anybody who wins will have to win 2 rounds just to get to the finals. As I can’t see any way Rhodes beats both Sabian and Archer, and I don’t think we’ll get Rhodes vs. Cabana, that only presents one step for Rhodes. Sabian, though, has a chance to make it to the finals.
If the game plan is Sabian vs. Cabana in the semifinals, that gives Sabian a win and the TNT title. Then, there’s a solid chance Sabian beats Cabana, as I believe more in Cody or Allin winning the left side of the bracket than Spears or Guevara.
I’d bank more on the finals being Cody/Sabian or Allin/Sabian than anyone/Rhodes or Spears/anyone, that’s for sure. However, I still don’t think that’s going to happen.
5. Colt Cabana
Boom boom for TNT? That makes sense. He’s a popular enough guy who shouldn’t be touching the world title any time soon, but can definitely hold the midcard title and give it some momentum.
A benefit for his chances is if Sabian beats Rhodes. That shouldn’t be too hard, as Sabian’s the one to push more so than Rhodes, but as mentioned before, it’s certainly no guarantee.
The tricky thing, though, is that Cabana would have to get past Lance Archer just to go up against Sabian. Then, he’d have to get through Sabian and take down the left side of the bracket’s winner to take the title.
I just don’t think that’s going to happen. He could squeak a victory by disqualification from Archer, or get a random pin if Cody distracts Archer or interferes. It’s not outside the realm of possibility. Neither is beating Sabian, but that also depends on the left side’s person.
If Cody or Allin gets to the final, Cabana’s not joining them. The only way Cabana does fight for this belt is if he’s up against Sammy Guevara, and even then…
4. Sammy Guevara
…Guevara stands a better chance than Cabana, would definitely beat Rhodes, is not fighting Sabian and won’t face Archer. That seems like a 2/4 shot to win, but it’s more complicated than that. Time for some Steiner math.
I’d say he has a 100% chance of winning if he makes it to the final, because that would pretty much guarantee he’s fighting Cabana. But since I think there’s no chance Rhodes makes it to the final, that takes 1/4 of his chances off the table. Then, as I can’t imagine Guevara vs. Sabian or Guevara vs. Archer to be the direction they’re going, both of those making it to the final means Guevara can’t.
The Spanish God has a tough road to get to the end. He couldn’t beat Allin at Revolution, but I could see him winning in the first round to balance that out. Then, losing to Cody in Round 2 makes sense.
I’d be totally up for Guevara holding this TNT Championship now or soon down the line. He’s quickly become one of my favorites on the roster, and if I were booking things, he would be my top choice, narrowly above PAC, who isn’t in this tournament. But he might not make it into Round 2, come to think of it.
3. Darby Allin
This is tough. That little scuffle Allin had with Cody after they lost their tag team match has me thinking the game plan is for Cody to fight Allin in Round 2.
That almost makes me think Allin goes on to win that match and fight in the finals against someone. That way, we get Cody against Archer at Double or Nothing as a standard match, Allin vs. I’d assume Sabian in the finals for this tournament, and so on. However, wouldn’t it make more sense for Sabian vs. Cabana to happen, not Allin vs. Sabian? And it’s certainly not going to be Allin vs. Rhodes, nor do I think they’ll bypass Cody vs. Archer and go with Allin vs. Archer instead.
But Allin is well-liked. He’s explosive with his offense, which would go well with the TNT Championship name. Holding a midcard title is perfect for him right now, too, as that’s the level he’s at.
I had him as my #1 pick until I started writing this out and figured I just can’t buy as much into him against anyone in the finals compared to the other two more obvious options. However, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if I’m wrong about this and we got Allin vs. Archer/Sabian with Allin walking away as champion.
2. Lance Archer
It’d be foolish to bet against the biggest man in the tournament who is brand new to the roster and looks like a monster, right? Theoretically, he should have the best chances out of everyone.
If Rhodes beats Sabian, Archer wrecks Dustin in Round 2 after beating Cabana (which opens room for Cabana vs. Sabian at Double or Nothing). That way, he can fight Cody in the finals at Double or Nothing, as it seems like they’ll do. But isn’t that a bit of a waste, too? Couldn’t they do Cody vs. Archer at DON without this TNT title being on the line?
I’m suspicious that there won’t be some kind of count out, disqualification or interference/distraction way to get Archer out of this tournament, instead. Maybe I’m just overthinking things, but I’m equally feeling Archer has the best chances out of everyone to win this and that he can’t possibly be their pick to hold this title first. He just doesn’t strike me as a guy they should give a belt to right now, as he can stand on his own without sporting a championship.
While I don’t trust my own logic here, I have to rank him #2 because of my flip-flopping uneasiness in going all in for him.
1. Cody
If it’s Cody against Archer in the finals, Cody winning makes much more sense. Not only is he better suited to hold a title than Archer would be as far as gimmicks go, he’s also in a unique position where he’s a main event talent.
Having Cody be the first champion makes the belt feel like it’s more than a midcard title. Whoever beats him for it will certainly look like they’re at least an upper-midcarder. Plus, since he’s not supposed to be able to challenge for the AEW World Championship ever again, this gives Cody a belt to fight for as a loophole. No one ever said anything about the TNT Championship in that clause.
It seems a bit self-aggrandizing to play the humility card with the world title only to create another championship and crown yourself the first-ever, but people love Cody. I don’t think anyone will mind. Just because he’s one of the heads of the company doesn’t mean he should constantly be losing everything. He’s one of the few guys with the best credibility—they need to use that while they can.
If he gets taken out in Round 2 by Allin or Guevara so that he can fight Archer in a match outside of this tournament, I wouldn’t be utterly shocked. However, putting the belt on Cody just makes sense to me more than anything else, so I have to rank him the top pick.
Who do you think will win this tournament? Tell us your predictions in the comments below!
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